CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-04T09:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24929/-1
CME Note: CME associated with an M3.9-class flare from Active Region 3296 seen to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a brighter bulk to the southeast and faint, wider shock with matching leading edge extending from the southeast to the northeast. A halo-like feature closely trailing behind this CME seen in COR2 running difference imagery may be associated with the eruption, but this is uncertain. A SOHO data gap exists over the CME propagation in the C2 FOV of view, obscuring analysis. Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). The other CME candidate for this arrival is 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-06T22:17Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-05-04 13:04
 - Time at C2: 2023-05-04 09:09
 - Radial speed: 831.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N10E44
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M3.9 (N17E43). Peak at 2023-05-04 08:05
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 639.68 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-06 22:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.15 hours)
Lead Time: 65.42 hour(s)
Difference: 15.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-05-04T19:55Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy